SET Announcements
26 January 2006
Additional Clarification Purchase Ordinary Shares Water Flow
(Translation)
No. CK-06-0000-PO-L-0031
January 26, 2006
Re: Additional Clarification on Purchase of Ordinary Shares in Water
Flow Co., Ltd.
Attn.: The President of the Stock Exchange of Thailand
Reference is made to the fact that CH. Karnchang Public Company
Limited informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand to clarify the purchase
of ordinary shares in Water Flow Co., Ltd.
The Company hereby additionally clarifies the details as follows:
1. The evaluation of share value of Water Flow Co., Ltd.
1.1 Financial Advisor: Far East Capital Advisory Co.,Ltd.
Share Value Approach As of 30 November 2005
Equity Value Equity Value per Share
(Baht Million) (Baht)
1. Book Value 111.81 1,118.14
2. Adjusted Book Value 111.81 1,118.14
3. Price to Earning Ratio 301.75-323.32 3,017.45-3,223.21
4. Price to Book Value Ratio 103.76-113.60 1,037.60-1,135.99
5. Discounted Cash Flow 763.35-934.20 7,633.53-9,342.01
1.2 Financial Advisor: KPMG Phoomchai Business Advisory Ltd.
Share Value Approach As of 31 December 2005
Equity Value Equity Value per Share
(Baht Million) (Baht)
1. Discounted Cash Flow 795-827 7,945-8,271
2. Dividend Discounted Model 768-800 7,683-8,003
The Financial Advisor used the Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend
Discounted Model to compute the equity value range. The valuation methods
and the computed value of the Company are the methods to reflect the
potential growth of operation and business. The assumptions are as
followed.
The following assumptions and forecast criteria are used in this
financial statement.
- The financial projection includes a 29 - year period according to
Operating and Maintenance Agreement ("OMA") between WF and TTW.
- The financial forecast is based on their views of future operation,
Operating and Maintenance Agreement, cost of production, and addition
plan in the future.
- WF's internal financial statement.
The Forecast Criteria of Earnings Statement
2006 F 2007 F 2008 F 2009 F 2010 F 2034F
Volume
Water Production (cu.m./day)
256,000 305,000 320,000 320,000 320,000 320,000
Inflation Growth
CPI Factor
5.70% 4.25% 4.00% 3.40% 3.00% 3.00%
Revenue
Service Rate (Growth by CPI)
3.56 3.71 3.86 3.99 4.11 8.35
Interest Income 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Water Production (cu. m./day)
Based on the Operating and Maintenance Agreement with TTW, derived from
the average of the estimated volume based on the increasing demand of
treated water with 30 year concession. However, the company's management
expected to increase the water volume according to such agreement and
reach a full capacity. The utilization rate is expected to improve as
corresponding to a sharp increase of treated water demand in the near
future as the above table.
According to the Operation and Maintenance Agreement between WF and TTW,
WF is stipulated to grant a compensation to TTW for the cost saving as a
result of WF not being able to supply shortfall quantities. The
compensation is calculated by multiplying the amount by which the actual
quantity of treated water purchased is less than the minimum off take
quantity. However, the WF's management believes that the possibility to
pay this amount is not likely to be occurred.
In case that TTW purchases treated water less than MOQ, it shall
compensate WF with an additional Bulk Water Charge of the different
amount between actual volume and MOQ. However, WF's management believes
that the possibility to pay this amount is not likely to be occurred.
CPI Factor
Source of the calculation on CPI factor of the central region that is
from the actual figures in December 2005. As announced by the Ministry
of Commerce at the rate of 5.7% which is taken on the service rate
calculation in 2006.
For the forecast criteria in 2007 that will use CPI factor of the whole
country as forecasted by Institute of Research for Thailand Development
at the rate of 4%, 3.4% and 3% respectively. Moreover, the forecast
criteria will be stable at the rate of 3% from 2012 onwards.
Service Rate/ Cu. M.
The service rate is specified by calculation method that mentioned in the
Operating Agreement with TTW, which is changed according to CPI factor as
forecasted above.
Interest Income
The interest income calculated from 1% of the total balance in each
installment.
Cost of Production
The production cost comprises of
1. Chemical cost
2. Electricity cost
2006 F 2007 F 2008 F 2009 F 2010 F 2034 F
Cost of production
Chemical cost 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.57 59 1.19
Electricity cost 1.70 1.77 1.85 1.91 1.97 3.99
Sales and administrative expense
(Growth by CPI factor rate) 47.6 49.3 51.0 52.6 54.0 104.4
Depreciation expense 20% 20% 20% 20%
Corporate Tax Rate
Tax rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Balance Sheet Assumptions
The chemical cost comprises the raw material used in water treatment
production such as Aluminium Sulphate Liquid, Calcium Hydroxide,
Magnafloc and Liquid Chloride, expected to grow by the growth of CPI
factor as the above forecast.
The cost of electricity is the major component cost of production which
is expected to grow according to the growth of CPI factor as the above
forecast.
Expenses of Sales and Administration
The expenses of sales and administrative consist of salary, depreciation
expenses, communication expenses, security expenses, office supply,
maintenance expenses and other expenses, are estimated to be fixed
amounting of Baht 45 million and it is forecasted to be increased by the
CPI growth as the above mentioned.
Depreciation Expenses
The depreciation expenses are calculated by the existing fixed assets
which is assumed to be 5 years.
Corporate Tax Rate
Corporate tax rate is calculated 30%.
Projected Balance Sheet
Account receivable
Account receivable is projected from collection days turnover based on
historical data which is set at 30 days throughout the projection period.
Inventory
WF's inventory days turnover is projected to be 7 days throughout the
projection period based on the historical data.
Other current assets
Based on the historical figures, other current assets, which mainly
consist of purchase tax undues, are assumed to be the average of 6% on
total cost of sales throughout the projection period.
Accounts payable
Account payable is projected from account payable days turnover based on
Wf's historical data which is 30 days over the projected period.
Accrued Corporate Income
Tax Based on the historical data, the projected accrued corporate income
tax are assumed to be 40% on corporate income tax.
Selling Tax Undue
Based on the historical data, the projected selling tax undue are assumed
to be 2% on sales.
Other Current Liabilities
Based on the historical figures, other current liabilities are assumed to
be on the average of 1% on total revenue throughout the projection period.
Property, plants, and equipment (PP&E)
There is no additional capital expenditure assumed over the projection
period.
Share capital
It is assumed that there are no significant changes in the capital
structure in the future.
FSum of Income Statement Assumptions
Please be informed accordingly.
Very truly yours,
- Signature -
(Mr. Anukool Tuntimas)
Executive Vice President
Human Resource and General Administration
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